Russia's Influence
After years of work, Moscow has made significant progress in regaining control over the former Soviet states that are crucial to Russia’s security. Russia’s window of opportunity to exert control in its near abroad is a narrow one, however, and so Moscow has prioritized its list of countries where it is trying to consolidate influence. After reining in the four countries imperative to Moscow’s interests — Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Georgia — Moscow will turn its attention to a group of countries where it would like to have more influence.
There are six countries — Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan — where Moscow would like to reconsolidate its influence if it has the opportunity. Although these countries are not crucial to Russia’s survival, as long as they remain outside Moscow’s control, the West has the ability to get too close to the Russian core for comfort. All these countries know how serious Russia is about its grand plan of expansionism. The 2008 Russo-Georgian war revealed Moscow’s willingness to militarily intervene on its former Soviet turf and sent the message to these countries that they must obey or cut a deal with Moscow, or else risk being crushed. Since then, these countries have watched Russia consolidate Kazakhstan and Belarus into a customs union (with the promise of becoming a formal union) and have seen a pro-Russian wave engulf Ukraine. (Stratfor)
Every big power has been trying to exercise its influence on other countries, especially neighbouring ones for obvious reasons.
At the same time I believe that influencing is a “two-way” process. As they say, there are no victims in life, there are only voluntees..
I remember a press-conferences of then Russian President Putin; he was asked by a Ukrainian journalist, when Russia will stop viewing Ukraine as “a younger sister”. Putin’s answer was brilliant: “The same day Ukraine stops to consider herself to feel a younger sister”.
I’m far from being Mr.Putin’s fan, however, I think he is absolutely right here: every country decides to what extend it wants to be influenced. It is often or always? a “mentality” problem and not economic or militaty only.
Commenting on Russian influence on Ukraine (as well as other ex-Soviet Union countries) it is important to understand that mentally it has been vexing for Russians to admit our independence; and it’s natural. Also for Ukraine (and other ex-SU countires) it was “stressful” to “lose parental guidance” of Russia and to face challenges of independance.
So now we all have to learn how to balance new reality, which is not easy at all, both economically and, given cross-cultual profiles of both countries, emotionally.